Insight: We discuss the most high profile seat in West Bengal - Nandigram.
Nandigram, an othrwise non-descript area in West Bengal has been a high profile area since 2007. Often marked as the turning point from where the all mighty Left Front, led by CPI(M) started losing the ground, Nandigram remained a strong hold for Trinamool Congress.
In 2021, it was a battle of titans where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee took on her once trusted commander and now bitter opponent Subhendu Adhikari. She lost it, but first - some backgrounder.
Nandigram has a relatively young population with 66% below 40. Close to 6% are new voters. 54% are Male.
Even though Muslim population in Purba Medinipur is relatively lower then than state average, Nandigram has a larger share. The 2011 census gives a religion-wise breakup of population at the level of blocks and census towns. According to Census 2011, Nandigram-I, Nandigram-II and the census town of Nandigram, the Muslim population share was 34%, 12.1% and 40.3%, respectively.
There are 12 booths with 99% Muslim population and here are 139 booths with less than 1% Muslim Population.
However, historically religion did not play any role in the election. Nadigram has elected MLAs from both community and mostly it was a close contest between the Congress / TMC and the Left. Between 1967 to 2006, CPI won the seat eight times, while Congress won it in 1969 and 1996. Things changed in 2007. Mamata Banerjee along with Suvendu Adhikari led the agitation. Left MLA Muhammad Illyas was disqualified after a sting operation. And in 2009, riding the popularity of the success of the movement, TMC candidate won the seat in the by-election with 25% vote swing. Since then Trinamool Congress won the assembly sgement two more times - in 2011 and 2016.
In fact TMC continued increasing their vote share in both elections. While in 2011, there was a 25.4% difference in winning margin of the Trinanool candidate Phiroja Bibi, in 2016, the difference was much higher with 40.3% gap between Suvendu Adhikari and CPI canidate Abdul Kabir Sekh.
BJP's vote share was increasing. The left was a distant third with BJP getting more than 30% of valid votes. Then in 2020, Subhendu Adhikary - leader of Nandigarm agitation switched to BJP.
In a very very closely fought election, the once protege Subhendu Adhikary defeated the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee by less than 2000 votes. But let's go back to the demography. Who did the Muslims vote for in 2021?
Let's analyze the booths Muslims are majority. Even thoough in some booths, Subhendu Adhikari did give a fight, Muslims poverwhelmingly voted for Mamata Banerjee (84%).
We also analyzed 139 booths where Muslim voters constitute less than 1%. Result is in overwhelemingly in favour of BJP (<64%). In fact out of 139, TMC got leads only in 19 booths. Clearly, Mamata Banerjee's lead of 34745 from Muslim dominated booths was neutralised by majority dominated seats.
Our inference: Even though Nandigram was a very close election, religious polarisation played a major role. To know more about Nandigram, weak and strong booths for each party and voting pattern, get in touch with us.
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