Tripura is set to go to poll on February 16. the political environment is all charged up. Alliances are being formed between two erstwhile rivals. And a new political force has emerged to be a power to reckon with. We have been working on Tripura for a while. In the first of our series on Tripura, we look at Simna constituency.
Background:
Simna is a constituency located in the western part of Tripura with a majority of the population belonging to the indigenous communities or Scheduled Tribes (ST). It is also part of Tripura West Lok Sabha constituency. The assembly segment consists of Paschim Simna, Sankhola, Baikunthapur and Chandrapur Tehsils; and Wakinagar mouza in Patnipara Tehsil in Sadar Sub-Division.
Simna
In 2018, the constituency had a total of 35967 electors. In 2023, the number has gone up to 97649. Over 90% of the population below to Scheduled Tribe with majority of them following Hinduism. The area is also part of TTAADC or the Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council Act which covers about two-thirds of Tripura’s territory. Out of the 60 assembly seats, there are 20 reserved seats for indigenous communities. In 15 other seats, tribal populations can swing electoral results. There are 10 seats reserved for the Scheduled caste community.
In the past, CPIM led Left Front was a dominant force in the TTAADC for a long time winning all seats in 2010 and 2015 elections. In fact, the left’s dominance in area paid large dividend in retaining power in the state between 1993-2018. However, CPIM's political influence in the tribal region has been declining. This was first evident in the 2018 elections, when the IPFT-Tipraha in alliance with BJP and backed the demand for 'Tipraland' won eight seats by gaining the support of the tribal population.
Focusing on Simna
For CPI(M), Simna was a rude shock in 2018. The party had been winning the seat since 1972. Pranab Debbarma, the five-time MLA lost to Brishaketu Debbarma of IPFT.
There was 4.94% difference in vote share between IMFT and CPI(M) with 12% swing against the then ruling party CPI(M). IPFT’s vote share increased by over 46% while INPT, which was in second position in 2013 with 42.19% came down to 4.93%.
Candidate | Party | Total Vote | Vote Share |
Brishaketu Debbarma | IPFT | 15977 | 48.37% |
Pranab Debbarma | CPI(M) | 14014 | 42.43% |
Rabindra Debbarma | INPT | 1628 | 4.93% |
Phani Lal Debbarma | INC | 495 | 1.5% |
Ananta Urang | TRIPP | 388 | 1.17% |
Clearly, INPT’s vote base had moved to IPFT along with a sizable shift from the left. INC was a distant fourth with 1.15%.
2019 General Election:
In 2019 General Election though, voters in Simna threw in some surprises. IPFT, still a part of BJP led coalition government fought separately with existing MLA of Simna, Brishaketu Debbarma being their candidate for Tripura West Lok Sabha Seat. While the seat was won by BJP’s Pratima Bhowmik with 51.77% vote share, in Simna assembly segment, INC’s Subal Bhowmik won support from the majority with 37.2% vote share. IPFT received 21.69% vote, BJP 16.77% and incumbent CPI’s Sankar Prasad Dutta 16.72%. There was a 48% negative swing against the left.
Candidate | Party | Total Vote | Vote Share |
Brishaketu Debbarma | IPFT | 6210 | 21.69% |
Sankar Prasad Datta | CPI | 4787 | 16.72% |
Pratima Bhowmik | BJP | 4801 | 16.77% |
Subal Bhowmik | INC | 10664 | 37.26% |
While analyzing the result at the booth level, we see a significant number of the traditional left voters voting for INC in the 2019 General Election. In the booths where CPI(M) had taken lead in 2018, there is a significant shift to INC. This can be attributed to the left’s declining influence in national politics.
Entry of Tipra Motha
Tripura royal family scion Pradyot Manikya Debbarma founded Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance or Tipra Motha soon after his resignation as he President of Tripura Pradesh Congress Committee in 2019. In 2021, the organization became a political party, fought the TTAADC and swept it with 16 seats including Simna- Tamakari and Badjung Nagar – Wakinagar which fall under Simna constituency.
The left, which controlled it for 15 years did not win a single seat. Since then, Tipra Motha’s influence in the state has only grown and it has now emerged as the deciding factor in the election. Last year, Brishaketu Debbarma, the incumbent MLA from Simna left the BJP alliance and joined Tipra Motha. A few other tribal parties have also merged with it making it as in as the main representative of tribal politics, in opposition to the BJP, which last year absorbed Tipra People’s Front led by Patal Kanya Jamatia.
Tipra Motha Chief Pradyot Debbarma has now formally invited IPFT to fight the elections together with the demand for a separate state for the indigenous Tripuris. If Tipra Motha joins the CPI(M) and Congress alliance, it could change the political equation in the state.
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